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software development effort estimation
Software development effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic amount of effort (expressed in terms of person-hours or money) required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets, investment analyses, pricing processes and bidding rounds.〔http://www.infoq.com/articles/software-development-effort-estimation〕
==State-of-practice==
Published surveys on estimation practice suggest that expert estimation is the dominant strategy when estimating software development effort.〔(【引用サイトリンク】 A Review of Studies on Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort )〕
Typically, effort estimates are over-optimistic and there is a strong over-confidence in their accuracy. The mean effort overrun seems to be about 30% and not decreasing over time. For a review of effort estimation error surveys, see.〔(【引用サイトリンク】 A review of software surveys on software effort estimation )〕 However, the measurement of estimation error is not unproblematic, see Assessing and interpreting the accuracy of effort estimates.
The strong over-confidence in the accuracy of the effort estimates is illustrated by the finding that, on average, if a software professional is 90% confident or “almost sure” to include the actual effort in a minimum-maximum interval, the observed frequency of including the actual effort is only 60-70%.〔(【引用サイトリンク】ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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